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Europe’s social model rules OK — er, for now
Looks like Société Générale’s economics team has some new members: Continue reading: Europe’s social model rules OK — er, for now
View ArticleThe European recession of 2011/12
Yup, it really has come to this. Rather than debating if there will be a recession in Europe, economists are now trying to figure what it will look like and how long it will last. RBS has already given...
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Real GDP per capita growth over the past 10 years: not what you’d think
A recent speech by Reserve Bank of Australia boss Glenn Stevens contained this striking chart: Continue reading: Real GDP per capita growth over the past 10 years: not what you’d think
View ArticleWho likes European bonds?
The self-described data geeks at Citi have a new note on who buys euro-denominated bonds, and we want to share some highlights. Even though European banks were endangered by their significant holdings...
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Spending versus consolidation, German political capital edition
Two sets of charts from BCA Research with unclear implications: Continue reading: Spending versus consolidation, German political capital edition
View ArticleWhy would the ECB buy corporate bonds?
Reuters is reporting that the European Central Bank might be willing to purchase corporate bonds as part of its €1 trillion effort to restore “the size of [its] balance sheet towards the dimensions it...
View ArticleThe ECB has good news for French households
The European Central Bank is set to release the results of its latest stress tests on euro area banks this Sunday. Those more interested in the fragility and resilience of euro area households should...
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An end to the great European bank deleveraging?
Maybe so, according to JP Morgan’s Flows & Liquidity team: This week’s release of euro area bank balance sheet data for the month of October is reinforcing a picture of expanding balance sheets and...
View ArticleDid Japan actually lose any decades?
Commentators, academics and policymakers often assert that Japan’s economic performance since the 1980s is one of the worst fates a rich country can endure. While this has become somewhat less common...
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European economist at Japanese bank says Europe would be lucky to end up like...
One of the supposed “lessons” of Japan’s post-bubble experience is that steady grinding deflation is the worst fate that can befall a rich country. See, for example, Ben Bernanke’s classic speech from...
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Which euro area countries have been driving household spending growth?
Handy chart from CreditSights illustrating the changing fortunes of euro area households over the past couple of years: Continue reading: Which euro area countries have been driving household spending...
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Ireland’s tight-fisted banks
A fascinating chart from Morgan Stanley’s European banking research team caught our eye. See if you can spot the odd one out (click to enlarge): Continue reading: Ireland’s tight-fisted banks
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25 bps in Canada = €1.1 trillion ECB QE?
The Bank of Canada cut rates yesterday and the European Central Bank announced its sovereign bond-buying scheme today. In both cases, there were sharp responses in the currency markets, but they seem...
View ArticleEuropean sovereign debt hypocrisy
Speaking at Davos this morning, Angela Merkel and Alexander Stubb argued that European creditors should not be held responsible for their poor lending decisions. Well, that’s not exactly how they...
View ArticleFake disinflation?
The fact that inflation is low is not, by itself, bad; with low inflation, you can buy more stuff. – Mario Draghi, June 6, 2013Continue reading: Fake disinflation?
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Euro area divergence more about regions than countries
Take a good long look at this map: Continue reading: Euro area divergence more about regions than countries
View ArticleThe mystery of the missing money, part 1
Those with the patience to pore over balance of payments data occasionally get rewarded with surprising nuggets of insight. As a case in point, a new note from Deutsche Bank points us to the mysteries...
View ArticleSpain’s “beautiful deleveraging” shows euro area’s limitations
Despite doing (basically) everything right, Spain’s membership in the euro has left it at the mercy of forces far stronger than anything even the most competent and responsible national institutions...
View ArticleGreece: it can’t get *that* much worse, can it?
Conventional wisdom holds that it would be an unmitigated disaster for Greece if it left the euro. This is, after all, why the country has continued to cling to the single currency despite the...
View ArticleGreece shows ECB’s stress tests were nonsense
Remember the Comprehensive Assessment? You know, the European Central Bank’s report in October 2014 that said three Greek banks were adequately capitalised to survive a stressed scenario thanks to...
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